Understanding 2026 Wildfire Economic Impact on Wilderness Edge Communities
 The University of Minnesota Duluth Bureau of Business and Economic Research conducted an analysis estimating the economic impact of lost visitors to Ely and Grand Marais in July 2026. Their analysis applied aggregate phone data to establish a two-year average baseline against which to compare visitorship.
According to the analysis, “the communities of Ely and Grand Marais saw roughly 47,000 fewer visitors in July 2026 compared with the previous two years.”
The estimated economic impact of this decrease in visitorship is $9.0 million.
Wow. That’s a big number. It’s going to take time to make sense of this information. What’s more, we understand that this is not the final number – the economic impact of lost visitorship rippled beyond July. Anecdotally we’ve heard from outfitters and resorters that some guests were still hesitant about trips this fall. As such it’s important to keep in mind that, in Ely, for example, that’s $4.4 million dollars of lost economic activity and counting. |
But I also want to stop and take a moment to be in awe of something I scarcely understood before: our little town and its so-called primary market area of a few thousand people habitually hosts over 200,000 “visitor days” in July alone. Wow! This highlights the lack of information we have about the flow of money into our area from tourism -- how much we don’t know about our tourism economy, in general.
I’m curious to see a similar graph that extends from January to December. What do our tourism trends look like across the entire twelve month year? What would we see if we were able to look farther back in time? What might it look like to compare the 12-month Ely graph with the 12-month Grand Marais graph?
And now our communities must face the challenge of determining what to do with this information. $9.0 million dollars of economic impact lost. Who is feeling it? How can the we help? How can we continue to match resources with needs?
How do we go about taking an inventory of resources on hand? And have we cultivated sufficient trust for people to be honest about their needs? This is no small endeavor, but we are up for the challenge. May we take an unflinching look at the numbers, because as the report rightly states, knowing the magnitude of these economic losses can help both community leaders and policymakers develop strategies and advocate for targeted economic relief.
And there is more information to come.
UMN Extension is in the final stages of compiling the results of the wildfire economic impact survey they conducted in collaboration with Ely Community Response. Each report approaches the question of economic impact differently – one using aggregate phone data to estimate lost visitorship (UMD BBER), and the other using qualitative data from 157 impacted businesses (UMN Extension).
Extension will be presenting their findings via a public webinar, the date and time for which are to be announced. Stay tuned for updates. |
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